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Foreign flow and the market
Does foreign money move the Brazilian market?
Monthly foreign portfolio flow against the total return of our market index, 122 months (2016-05 to 2026-06), in both currencies and at several lags.
Correlation by lag
Lag 0 is the same month. Lag +1 pairs this month's flow with next month's return — the only direction that would be worth anything to an investor. Negative lags put the return first.
| Lag | Same-month reading | In R$ (Pearson · Spearman) | In US$ (Pearson · Spearman) | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | return → flow +3m | +0.02 · +0.03 | -0.01 · -0.03 | 119 |
| -2 | return → flow +2m | -0.07 · -0.11 | -0.09 · -0.13 | 120 |
| -1 | return → flow +1m | +0.14 · +0.10 | +0.20 · +0.16 | 121 |
| +0 | same month | +0.47 · +0.38 | +0.51 · +0.46 | 122 |
| +1 | flow → return +1m | +0.03 · -0.06 | +0.05 · -0.03 | 123 |
| +2 | flow → return +2m | -0.14 · -0.17 | -0.08 · -0.11 | 124 |
| +3 | flow → return +3m | -0.06 · -0.04 | +0.01 · +0.02 | 124 |
What the numbers say
- Same month: +0.51. Strong — and almost mechanical. Money arrives while the market is rising, and the buying itself pushes prices. This number says nothing about prediction, which is exactly how the news chart is usually read.
- Flow first, return next month: +0.05. Essentially zero, and the rank version even turns slightly negative. Over these months, knowing that foreigners came in was worth nothing for the month ahead.
- Return first, flow next month: +0.20. Bigger than the other direction. What the data looks like is money following the market rather than leading it.
What this is not
- It is not the B3 chart from the news. That one is the non-resident buy/sell balance on the exchange floor. This is capital crossing the border, from the balance of payments. They correlate; they are not the same number. We tested seven paths to B3's series through 16/08/2026 — the daily bulletin publishes PDF only and keeps 20 days. Scraping it would break without warning, which is the opposite of what this database is for.
- Correlation is not cause. Flow and returns both answer to US rates, commodity prices and political risk. A third thing moving both is the ordinary case, not the exception.
- One country, one regime, ~10 years. Enough to refuse a claim, not enough to establish a rule.
How the series are built · The flow series itself · This table as JSON · Back to Macro