In the Focus survey of 2026-10-23, the market median is IPCA 5.19% for 2026 and Selic 13.25% at the end of 2026.
The Focus Report is the Central Bank of Brazil's weekly summary of market expectations, collected from banks, asset managers and other institutions: what they expect, for each year, for IPCA inflation, the Selic rate, the exchange rate and GDP. The headline number is the MEDIAN, the middle of the answers. An expectation is market opinion, not a Central Bank projection and not a guarantee of anything: the section "How accurate the market was" shows, against the realised figures, how far off it tends to be.
The latest median, by reference year
indicator
2026
2027
2028
2029
IPCA (%) 2026-10-23
5.19 −0.03
4.34 +0.02
3.75 0
3.50 0
Selic (%) 2026-10-23
13.25 0
11.75 −0.25
10.00 −0.50
10.00 0
Exchange rate (R$) 2026-10-23
5.05 −0.08
5.15 −0.07
5.20 −0.09
5.28 −0.02
GDP (%) 2026-10-23
1.80 −0.03
1.31 −0.01
1.81 0
2.00 0
Each cell is the median of the survey; the small figure below is the difference from the survey one week earlier (our subtraction). IPCA, Selic and GDP in %; exchange rate in R$ per US$. Reference year = the year the expectation is about.
How it changed over the last weeks
IPCA: median, last 26 weekly surveys
● for 2026● for 2027
for 2026: from 4.89 (2026-04-30) to 5.19 (2026-10-23); for 2027: from 4.00 (2026-04-30) to 4.34 (2026-10-23).
Selic: median, last 26 weekly surveys
● for 2026● for 2027
for 2026: from 13.00 (2026-04-30) to 13.25 (2026-10-23); for 2027: from 11.00 (2026-04-30) to 11.75 (2026-10-23).
Exchange rate: median, last 26 weekly surveys
● for 2026● for 2027
for 2026: from 5.25 (2026-04-30) to 5.05 (2026-10-23); for 2027: from 5.30 (2026-04-30) to 5.15 (2026-10-23).
GDP: median, last 26 weekly surveys
● for 2026● for 2027
for 2026: from 1.85 (2026-04-30) to 1.80 (2026-10-23); for 2027: from 1.75 (2026-04-30) to 1.31 (2026-10-23).
How accurate the market was
For each closed year: the median expectation from the last survey of the previous December (about 12 months before the end of the year) against the figure that actually happened, from the series this site already keeps. The error is our subtraction (realised minus expectation); the two figures themselves are the ones the sources published.
IPCA
IPCA: expectation vs realised, by year
● expectation 12 months before● realised
Over 25 years, the mean absolute error was 1.62 percentage points, and the realised figure fell within 0.5 point of the expectation in 6 of them (our arithmetic on the table).
year
expected (%)
IPCA of the year (Dec/Dec), IBGE (%)
error (pp)
survey of
2025
4.99
4.26
−0.73
2024-12-31
2024
3.90
4.83
+0.93
2023-12-29
2023
5.31
4.62
−0.69
2022-12-30
2022
5.03
5.79
+0.76
2021-12-31
2021
3.32
10.06
+6.74
2020-12-31
2020
3.61
4.52
+0.91
2019-12-31
2019
4.01
4.31
+0.30
2018-12-31
2018
3.96
3.75
−0.21
2017-12-29
2017
4.87
2.95
−1.92
2016-12-30
2016
6.87
6.29
−0.58
2015-12-31
2015
6.56
10.67
+4.11
2014-12-31
2014
5.97
6.41
+0.44
2013-12-31
2013
5.47
5.91
+0.44
2012-12-31
2012
5.32
5.84
+0.52
2011-12-30
2011
5.32
6.50
+1.18
2010-12-31
2010
4.50
5.91
+1.41
2009-12-31
2009
5.00
4.31
−0.69
2008-12-31
2008
4.30
5.90
+1.60
2007-12-31
2007
4.00
4.46
+0.46
2006-12-29
2006
4.50
3.14
−1.36
2005-12-30
2005
5.70
5.69
−0.01
2004-12-30
2004
6.00
7.60
+1.60
2003-12-30
2003
11.00
9.30
−1.70
2002-12-31
2002
4.80
12.53
+7.73
2001-12-31
2001
4.30
7.67
+3.37
2000-12-29
Selic
Selic: expectation vs realised, by year
● expectation 12 months before● realised
Over 25 years, the mean absolute error was 2.51 percentage points, and the realised figure fell within 0.5 point of the expectation in 5 of them (our arithmetic on the table).
year
expected (%)
Selic target on 31 Dec, BCB (%)
error (pp)
survey of
2025
14.75
15.00
+0.25
2024-12-31
2024
9.00
12.25
+3.25
2023-12-29
2023
12.25
11.75
−0.50
2022-12-30
2022
11.50
13.75
+2.25
2021-12-31
2021
3.00
9.25
+6.25
2020-12-31
2020
4.50
2.00
−2.50
2019-12-31
2019
7.13
4.50
−2.63
2018-12-31
2018
6.75
6.50
−0.25
2017-12-29
2017
10.25
7.00
−3.25
2016-12-30
2016
15.25
13.75
−1.50
2015-12-31
2015
12.50
14.25
+1.75
2014-12-31
2014
10.50
11.75
+1.25
2013-12-31
2013
7.25
10.00
+2.75
2012-12-31
2012
9.50
7.25
−2.25
2011-12-30
2011
12.25
11.00
−1.25
2010-12-31
2010
10.75
10.75
0
2009-12-31
2009
12.00
8.75
−3.25
2008-12-31
2008
10.75
13.75
+3.00
2007-12-31
2007
11.75
11.25
−0.50
2006-12-29
2006
15.00
13.25
−1.75
2005-12-30
2005
16.00
18.00
+2.00
2004-12-30
2004
13.93
17.75
+3.82
2003-12-30
2003
20.00
16.50
−3.50
2002-12-31
2002
17.00
25.00
+8.00
2001-12-31
2001
14.00
19.00
+5.00
2000-12-29
The data in JSON and CSV
/focus/series — JSON: the latest survey, the accuracy table and the source.
The medians are the ones the Central Bank published, from the 30-day base the Focus Report uses, one survey per week (the last of each week). Nothing here is a forecast of ours or a recommendation.
How to cite
Source: https://dadosb3.com/focus?lang=en (Dados B3) — market expectations from the Central Bank of Brazil Focus Report (Olinda API; ODbL), medians as published, not recomputed; data version 2026-11-03-delistadas-proventos-cvm; latest survey 2026-10-23. Open methodology at https://dadosb3.com/metodologia/boletim_focus?lang=en.
Sources: CVM (open data, ODbL) and B3 (COTAHIST). Not affiliated with B3 or the CVM. Not investment advice.
Numbers on this page are live. Data version 2026-11-03-delistadas-proventos-cvm · page generated 2026-11-03 19:34 UTC. If this does not match /saude, you are reading a cached copy.